Trump’s pipeline claims likely pipe dream

There seems to be something of a thaw in the trade deal stalemate between Canada and the U.S.

The two sides are talking again — but at the same time, the talk from one side is more than a little bizarre, with U.S. President Donald Trump claiming Canada is going to build an $8-billion pipeline (2021 prices) — and pay for it all as part of the deal.

Keystone XL has long been a favourite Trump issue.

Before trade talks went off the rails in August, Trump was already claiming it would be part of a new Canada-U.S. trade deal. “The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In April, Trump had also signed an order granting cross-border permits for the project, and has claimed in the past that the U.S. will get a cut of profits from the pipeline.

Over this past weekend, Trump’s pipeline claims got even bigger: “We have a concept of a very good deal with Canada,” Trump said in Dubuque, Iowa on Nov. 1. “They’re going to build the Keystone pipeline. They’re going to pay for it. They’re going to pay for all of it.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney was on the other side of the phone call that started trade talks again: his response to what was said, delivered through the social media platform X, was more measured. “Good conversation with President @realDonaldTrump (sic) on the future of Canada-U.S. trade. This builds on our recent constructive discussions on the outlines of a mutually beneficial trade deal … Our teams will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome.”

(To add a little context, Carney also later tweeted: “Our alliance with the EU will give our citizens more choice, more opportunity and a more affordable future.” Good to keep all the cards in play.)

So why isn’t the idea that Canada is now somehow going to be bankrolling Keystone XL getting much press?

Simple.

Too many of the things Trump claims are just empty blather.

When Keystone XL was on the table before being halted by then-U.S.-president Joe Biden on his very first day in office in 2021 (citing environmental concerns), it was not planned as a national pipeline — it was a private venture by TC Energy, with investment support from the province of Alberta.

The idea that Canada is going to jump in and pay for it all is, well, like a fever dream.

Despite Trump’s latest pipeline meanderings, it’s good to have trade talks back on, if for no other reason than the huge amount of trade that crosses the Canada-U.S. border.

But it’s difficult to trade or to make a trade deal with a country whose president not only seems to make things up out of whole cloth, but who also can’t be trusted to actually stand by any signed contract or deal.

Right now, there is absolutely no reason to think we won’t be played for a fool by the president of our nearest neighbour.

And when it comes to off-the-cuff statements by a president who also insists he is the best president ever? Well, let’s just say we’ll have to wait and see what the real facts are. Heck, he’s willing to say that he’s won a war with Iran that he’s unable to get out of, while simultaneously claiming that he would have ended the Vietnam War in weeks.

Stay calm, move slowly, be pragmatic and, above all, find new customers in nations where their word is their bond.

What’s coming out of Trump’s pipeline isn’t oil. More than likely, it’s a stinking river of something else entirely.