Liberals in serious need of new blood

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This article was published 27/06/2024 (829 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It has not been a good week for the Liberals.

By now, the dust has settled in Toronto-St. Paul’s riding. The Conservatives won if not handily, at least historically against a Liberal stalwart in what was pegged as a referendum on Justin Trudeau’s popularity. Political pundits will parse what this means for the Liberals and there will be increased calls for Trudeau to step down.

Polling numbers have gone from bad to worse. The Liberals continue to trail the opposition Conservatives in the polls. A recent Abacus survey gave the Conservatives a 20-point lead over the Liberals. But Trudeau downplayed those numbers, suggesting that Canadians aren’t in decision-making mode just yet.

Abacus also determined that 59 per cent of those surveyed had a negative opinion of the prime minister, while 33 per cent have a positive view of him.

It’s not looking good

But what happens after that?

Another poll, this one from Angus Reid Institute suggests that there’s no potential leader lying in wait who can propel the Liberals out of their popularity slump. According to Angus Reid it’s the policies and not just the leader, that are hurting the Grits’ image. Half of the uncommitted voters considering the Liberals said it’s the “lack of progress on issues they find important” and another 29 per cent say the government’s deficit spending is the problem. Trudeau’s leadership was a reason for not supporting the party for about 31 per cent of those polled.

The survey also found that leadership hopefuls like Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Treasury Board President Anita Anand “would drive them away from the party.”

That’s enough to make anyone pause. But a new leader who isn’t tainted by being seen as a Trudeau insider could have the capacity to rebuild before an October 2025 election. It would take some careful political marketing, but it’s possible. And at the very least, it could stem the bleeding.

There was so much promise in 2015 when the Liberals staged a stunning electoral win, promising “sunny ways” and offering “real change for Canada” dumping a grey and depressing Conservative party under Stephen Harper. But the 184-seat majority was whittled away to a minority in 2019 and the Liberals remain in minority status despite a second election in 2021. COVID, convoys, high interest rates, unaffordable housing and the spiraling costs of groceries means that many Canadians are disgruntled and looking for something new.

And there’s even more bad news this week. Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly went up in May, raising more concerns about the Bank of Canada interest rates. Inflation in May went to 2.9 per cent, compared to 2.7 per cent in April. While some economists consider this to be a “one-off” it still was seen as disappointing and will likely mean that interest rate relief won’t be coming unti September.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose in May to 6.2 per cent. In July 2022, the unemployment rate was at the same level enjoyed in the 1970s – 4.8 per cent. But according to economists the Bank of Canada cuts last month cooled the economy somewhat leading to a slowdown in hiring.

Trudeau suggested at one point in an interview last year that he had contemplated leaving politics. In an interview he gave to host Adam Grant in a podcast “ReThinking,” Trudeau said there was a moment “I was facing some difficult moments in my marriage, where I really wondered, ‘OK, is there a path?’ And I just realized, that’s not me.”

The prime minister continued: “There is so much to do still, and the stakes are higher in some ways for our democracies than ever before.” Trudeau suggested there was still too much he had to fight for.

Perhaps it’s time to give up this fight and let someone else take up the mantle. It can’t be any worse than it is now.

Trudeau may want his legacy to be “sunny ways,” but he’s quickly becoming an albatross around the neck of the Liberal brand. Time for some new blood to rebuild before it’s too late.

Shannon Sampert is a lecturer at RRC Polytech. She was the politics and perspectives editor at the Free Press from 2014-17.

shannon@mediadiva.ca