Winnipeg needs better performance from quarterback, receivers

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/11/2018 (2838 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The question is inevitable, when you are one step away from competing in the Grey Cup, and forced to watch the Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa RedBlacks compete for it. What do these teams have that the Winnipeg Blue Bombers don’t?

All three teams had winning records in the CFL regular season, and records of at least 6 and 3 or better at home. All three have staunch defences, as they allowed the three fewest point totals in the CFL. Their offences threw the three fewest interception totals, and they were numbers one, two and three when it came to forcing the most turnovers. All three teams can run the ball — Ottawa and Winnipeg have the two top rushers in the CFL — and all three have balanced attacks.

So what puts the Stampeders and RedBlacks in the Grey Cup, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on the outside looking in?

Well, you can certainly start with the argument that one of these teams plays in the much softer Eastern division, and that helps their chances immeasurably, but the RedBlacks have also won a Grey Cup of late, beating this year’s Grey Cup champion in 2016, in year three their short existence. In fact, they have been to the Grey Cup three times now, during their first five years in the league.

So is there anything else that jumps off the statistical assessment of the 2018 season that separates the two Grey Cup finalists from — in most people’s opinions — the third-best team in the CFL?

Well, according to the year-end numbers compiled by the CFL, the Blue Bombers have the fifth-best quarterback in the league, and a receiving group that is even scarcer when it comes to the final tabulations of production.

If you want the quick count, you can jump to the category of “QB rating leaders.” In this tally, Matt Nichols is behind Mike Reilly, Jeremiah Masoli, Bo-Levi Mitchell and Trevor Harris. If you prefer to look statistic by statistic, you’ll also find that Nichols finds himself in fifth place in many individual segments too. Fifth-best in passing yards on the season. Fifth-best in passing efficiency. Fifth-best in touchdowns thrown. Fifth-best in interception percentage, and fifth-best in the CFL’s own “QUAR” rating.

In fact, in the few categories where Nichols isn’t hovering around the fifth-place mark, are the “20+ yard depth passing,” and “Deep Passes data.” In those assessments, though, Nichols is seventh, behind both Travis Lulay and Zach Collaros.

In the three years he’s been the full-time starter in Winnipeg, though he played his fewest games in 2018, he threw his most interceptions, and had his lowest completion percentage. So is it that simple for the Blue Bombers? Get improved play out of the pivot position and they’ll find themselves in the Grey Cup next year?

The one problem with jumping to that conclusion — that Nichols is hovering in the middle of the pack of starting pivots in the CFL — is you can’t definitively say whether this is caused by a dropoff in his play, or that of his receivers. Take a quick glance at the top receivers in the CFL in 2018 and you see there is only one Bomber in the top 20. Ottawa has three receivers in the top 20, and Calgary, even after losing Kamar Jorden, Marken Michels, Reggie Begelton and DaVaris Daniels to season-ending injuries, have two.

Whether you think it’s the quarterback who needs an upgrade, the receivers he’s throwing to, or both, the biggest thing different about Winnipeg, statistically, from the participants in the Grey Cup, was the production out of these two areas. And if Winnipeg wants to elevate its game to this magnitude in 2019, one or more need to be addressed this off-season.

Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears weekly in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97