U.S. unlikely to give up rogue-state status

If the question is “Is America back?” the answer must be “no.” At least not in ways that are meaningful to non-Americans, who make up 96 per cent of the world’s population.

For Americans, it’s a bit more nuanced. Nothing at all will change until Jan. 3, 2027, when all the new and returning members of Congress are sworn in.

What will happen after that remains to be seen, but it won’t include much legislation because U.S. President Donald Trump is promising to use his power of veto to thwart any measures he dislikes.

So for all the hyperbole about “electoral earthquakes,” this is not the dawn of a new and better era in the United States. If the Democrats can stay cool and forensic in their approach, they might lay the foundations for another electoral victory and a real reckoning in 2028, but it is not within reach now.

Where Trump remains unconstrained is in his dealings with the rest of the world: his tariffs, his wars, his whims and hates and boundless greed. He is not one whit less powerful in that domain than he was last week and the damage he can do is both unpredictable and incalculable.

Just one example: Iran.

Since Trump was beguiled into making a surprise attack on Iran eight months ago by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netantyahu, he has oscillated endlessly between believing he can bomb the Iranians into submission — and imagining that he can “negotiate” a better outcome than former U.S. president Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran (which Trump tore up eight years ago).

As I write, we have no idea whether or not Trump will resume bombing Iran now that the midterms are out of the way. He probably has no idea himself. Of course, Iran still has no nuclear weapon or anything near that — but senior regime members are now openly debating whether Iran should get the bomb just to deter this kind of nonsense.

And so it goes, from threats to annex the “51st state” (Canada) to rambling monologues about how Trump already controls Greenland to boasts about how the United States now owns most of Venezuela’s oil. Most of it is empty threats but bits of it actually come to pass and you can’t really be sure which is which.

Never mind. Only two more years and it will be over — but will it?

There is no reason to believe the United States is only dabbling in the business of being a rogue state and will revert to being the guarantor of global stability once the madman has been removed or retired.

In all the vox-pop voter interviews and the politicians’ thank-you speeches, did you hear a single American saying they were worried about their country going rogue? Did anybody say that kidnapping Venezuela’s president and stealing the country’s oil was illegal or that conniving in Russia’s war against Ukraine was both evil and counter-productive?

No. The most you heard even about Trump’s on-again-off-again war on Iran was the complaint that it had driven up the cost of living and especially the cost of diesel fuel.

This is not a country that can commit to a serious military alliance on the far side of a large ocean.

There’s no good reason it should. Its oceans are sufficient defence against any conventional threat of invasion and the threat of nuclear weapons is a matter for deterrence, never for fighting.

Once upon a time, a large number of Americans were persuaded to belong to a major overseas alliance by broad ideology and a specific geopolitical concept (the Russians are coming!), but those days are long gone. The Russians still need to be deterred, but it doesn’t require Americans.

It still makes sense for Europeans to have a sort of post-NATO alliance, because Russia really is aggressive in seeking to regain its old imperial frontiers. It even makes sense for Canada to belong to that post-NATO organization, because it helps defend Canadian sovereignty from American challenge.

But it’s foolish to depend on Americans for support, because they don’t have skin in this game.

Gwynne Dyer’s new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers. The previous book, The Shortest History of War, is also still available.