Europe anxious as ever about immigration

It was only a matter of time before immigration would again panic Europe. The issue has roiled the continent’s politics ever since its 2015 migrant crisis, when 1.3 million unauthorized migrants crossed its borders that summer. They exposed a broken immigration system in the process, triggering a populist backlash that hasn’t dimmed.

All those same tensions were reignited in late July, when 72,000 migrants converged on the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in just 24 hours. The city — a holdover from Spain’s colonial era — is Europe’s only land border with Africa, nestled next to Morocco. It was almost instantly overrun.

Dozens of people died in the chaos, while the reasons for the sudden influx remain unknown. However, virtually all the arrivals were sent back to Morocco almost immediately; some spent a few days in makeshift holding centres. None were recorded as finding their way to mainland Europe.

Still, the episode inflamed divisions in a region caught in existential limbo. Ultranationalist political parties are ascendant — yet low birth rates and stagnant productivity mean Europe’s future largely hinges on accepting more newcomers.

Some are blaming the incident on misinformation. Viral posts on TikTok declared Spain’s borders open to anyone with or without papers after a recent court ruling rendered the country’s deportation authority somewhat toothless.

Spain’s leftist government in June also launched a program to naturalize 500,000 resident undocumented workers. Roughly 1.2 million people have already applied.

Others speculate that Morocco engineered the crisis to pressure Madrid to accept its tightening grip over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Moroccan border guards were conspicuously absent when the migrant crowds began to swell. The few that remained acted as human turnstiles.

Morocco has de facto annexed Western Sahara — a resource-rich parcel of land along the Atlantic Ocean, recently used to film Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster The Odyssey — by expelling the indigenous ethnic Sahwari people and fast-tracking commercial development there.

A fledgling Sahwari armed resistance movement, the Polisario Front, has fought back for decades. Although Morocco considers the Polisario Front to be a terrorist group, Spain — which ruled Western Sahara until the mid-1970s — allowed its leader to be airlifted into Spain in 2021 to receive medical treatment for COVID-19.

While the true cause of the mad dash to Ceuta remains a mystery, the fallout in Europe was swift and obvious.

Far-right groups immediately resorted to fear-mongering on social media by falsely describing the scenes as an “invasion.” (Anyone wanting to reach the rest of Spain from Ceuta must first cross the Strait of Gibraltar on a tightly controlled ferry.)

Meanwhile, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni posted on X that her country would “not stand by and watch.” This included a suggestion — supported by Austria and Finland — that Spain be temporarily suspended from the Schengen Area, a cornerstone arrangement which guarantees freedom of movement within the European Union.

“We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create a perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible,” read an open letter from Aug. 1 signed by the leaders of 22 of 27 the bloc’s member states. It criticized both Spain’s handling of the Ceuta crisis and its decision to normalize large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

But immigration remains Europe’s unavoidable challenge. And it’s barely begun.

European societies are relentlessly aging. By 2040 — less than 15 years from now — the continent’s working-age population could be 6.5 per cent smaller. Gaping labour deficits will keep being a major pull for aspiring migrants from the developing world.

This will be especially true in Africa. By far the world’s youngest region, the continent is poised to account for 85 per cent of the increase in the global working-age population through 2050. However, such demographic trends are both a blessing and a curse. Studies suggest that given Africa’s rapid population increases — around 2.6 per cent per year — absorbing new entrants into its own labour force will require annual GDP growth above 10 per cent for several decades. This seems highly unlikely in a fragmented global environment trending toward economic nationalism and protectionism.

Ultimately then, if even a small fraction of those from Africa — and elsewhere — caught up in conflict, displaced by climate change or escaping authoritarianism, decide to journey to Europe in the future, attempted illegal border crossings will spike by millions each year.

To avoid destructive political infighting, European nations must get on the same page. Not only on border security but in admitting that immigration is now essential for the continent’s continued prosperity.

Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst focused on globalization, conflict and emerging technologies.