Election could be closer than expected

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/04/2023 (1226 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The numbers at the top got the attention, but it’s the numbers further down that tell a more interesting story.

Last week, Probe Research released the results of its latest survey of Manitobans’ voting intentions. The focus of the news coverage that ensued was that our Progressive Conservative government has narrowed the New Democratic Party’s lead in the polls.

The poll found the NDP enjoys the support of 44 per cent of respondents, with the Tories trailing at 38 per cent. In last December’s poll, the NDP held an 11-point (46-35) lead. Now it’s just six per cent.

Those are the provincewide numbers, which are often distorted by the Tories’ huge lead in rural Manitoba. Inside Winnipeg, where the majority of seats in the legislature are located, the NDP’s lead over the Tories has shrunk by five points since December. That sounds like a big shift, but the margin is still so large (53 per cent to 30 per cent) that even a five-point reduction appears inconsequential.

If you look at just those numbers, it’s easy to conclude that the Tories’ improvement is too small, and too late, to change the likely results in the upcoming provincial election. Indeed, that has been the thrust of most media reporting on the poll’s results.

I’m not so sure about that, as there are a number of aspects to this poll’s results that may hint at a far more competitive election than most pundits anticipate.

First, the collapse of provincewide support for the Liberals is noteworthy. They are at just nine per cent in this latest poll, which is the party’s lowest number since the 2019 election. That said, the results of the recent Fort Whyte and Kirkfield Park byelections suggest many voters are willing to support strong Liberal candidates. If that is the case (as occurred in those two ridings), it could far be more difficult for NDP candidates to win in Tory-held ridings that have strong Liberal candidates.

Second, much of the reporting with respect to the latest Probe poll characterized its results as telling us how Manitobans would vote “if an election were held tomorrow,” but that doesn’t really reflect the questions posed to respondents. They were simply asked which political party’s candidate they would “most likely” vote for, “might want to support” or are “leaning toward.”

That’s nowhere close to a committed decision, and it doesn’t reflect the reality that citizens vote for individual candidates with names, qualifications and track records.

Third, while much of the reporting has characterized the recent increase in support for the Tories as largely insignificant, the underlying numbers in the latest poll, and the three quarterly polls before it, show the situation may not be as bleak for Team Stefanson as it appears.

In March of last year, the NDP held a 46-30 lead over the Tories among voters aged 35 to 54. The parties are now tied at 41 per cent. Among voters 55 and older, the NDP’s 39-37 lead last year has now shifted to a 43-41 lead for the Tories.

Note that the poll did not ask respondents how likely they are to vote. That’s significant because years of polling data shows that voters aged 55 and older are far more likely to vote than voters between the ages of 35 and 54. And voters between ages 18 and 34 are far less likely to vote than voters in either of the older age categories.

What it means is that the NDP’s huge (53-30) lead among young voters is unlikely to translate into the same distribution of votes on election day. The trend with respect to “likely voters” favours the Tories, not the NDP, and that could have huge ramifications for the election’s outcome.

Over the past several weeks, a number of Tory insiders have hinted that the party’s polling results suggest the NDP lead is narrowing as more Manitobans focus on the possibility of an NDP government being elected. The latest Probe poll numbers appear to confirm that perception.

And all those numbers point to the possibility that this election could be closer than many expect.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

deverynrossletters@gmail.com

Twitter: @deverynross