Tariff cracks are starting to show

The cracks are most definitely starting to show.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made tariffs — punitive, erratic, inflammatory, self-injurious and, more often than not, petty in their application — the foundation of what passes for economic policy during his second term in office.

The agenda has created uncertainty, distrust and even a measure of enmity among what had formerly been friendly trading nations, underpinned by Trump’s continual carping that America has been “ripped off” by its long-standing partners in global commerce.

At the top of the tariff target list, of course, has been Canada, which found itself squarely in the crosshairs as soon as the president moved back into the White House in January 2025. Having developed an irrational dislike for former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Trump threatened (and, in some cases, summarily imposed) varying levels of tariffs, while at the same time disparaging Canada’s sovereignty by musing aloud about absorbing it as the 51st U.S. state.

The economic and verbal assaults had an immediate effect, with Canadians adopting an “elbows up” attitude that led to decreased spending on U.S. products, the removal of American imports from liquor-store shelves across the country, and a drastic reduction of Canadian tourism to south-of-the-border destinations.

Despite experiencing the direct consequences of Trump’s provocations, elected Republicans in border states and beyond remained in lockstep with the president’s agenda. With this November’s midterm elections looming and Trump’s weakening popularity making him less of an asset, however, the ground is beginning to shift, as evidenced by a pair of mini-rebellions last week by House Republicans on tariff-related measures.

First, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson failed to muster enough votes to maintain an ongoing ban on members forcing votes to repeal the falsely fentanyl-inspired “national emergency authority” employed as a key justification for Trump’s tariffs; soon after, six House Republicans sided with Democrats Feb. 11 in support of a resolution to repeal the Trump-imposed tariffs on Canada.

This does not mean the tariffs are suddenly going to disappear. Quite the contrary; Trump’s antagonisms toward Canada are likely to continue as long as he remains in office. The vote to repeal did not receive the required two-thirds majority support to render it veto-proof, so in order for it to take effect it would have to survive a vote in the Senate — which is unlikely — and then be sent to the president’s desk for signature — something Trump absolutely would not do.

Last week’s votes do, however, deliver a clear indication that some Republicans are sufficiently concerned about what the upcoming midterms might mean for them personally and for their party’s congressional prospects that they’re willing to shake free, at least temporarily, of Trump’s iron grip.

While each GOP member who sided with Democrats on the repeal measure had their own rationale for supporting New York Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks’ measure, the prevailing attitude might best have been summed up by Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon: “We have a trade agreement that President Trump negotiated, and Canada has complied with it. The United States and Canada are close allies with a strong and equitable trade and services relationship, and we should be working to build on that partnership, not undermine it.”

Trump’s reaction was immediate and predictable, warning any Republican who votes against tariffs will suffer consequences — including the possibility of being “primaried” by a more Trump-acquiescent GOP alternative — at election time.

It’s a threat that has, in the past, largely kept election-bound Republicans in Trump’s thrall. In the current reality, however, some have clearly concluded breaking ranks is a risk worth taking.