The perils of dealing with a serial liar

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Or more to the point, the elephant in the White House.

But first, a small scenario.

You’re in business, and you’re working on a negotiation for a takeover by your company of another firm. The purchase, like most, depends on a fair and accurate analysis of the pros and cons of the deal, along with a clear understanding of the assets and liabilities of the company you’re buying.

Your target company sells groceries in the wholesale market: you look at the company’s books and see a troubling problem: the numbers say that their profits are far lower than you were led to believe by the company’s owner.

You question the information you were given before you got the balance sheets and began your due diligence: the answer you get? “Our return is always much higher than that.”

But, you argue, the balance sheet clearly shows the return isn’t higher — you ask for more information — perhaps, some additional proof of what’s being said. It’s coming, the owner says. But it doesn’t arrive.

Also, there are some questions about the assets involved: the seller indicated warehouse space was owned, while it now appears it’s only leased.

“I don’t like your tone,” the seller responds. “The deal will now cost you 10 per cent more.”

What would you conclude? That you should move forward? Or that your potential purchase is being run by a liar, or worse, a fraud. The answer is obvious. You would run, not walk, away from that deal.

Consider that scenario alongside Canada’s dealings/trade negotiations with the Americans and with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The simple truth is that Trump is exactly that liar. He demonstrably lies about grocery prices, about gasoline prices, about the idea that every supposed drug boat he illegally blows up “saves 25,000 American lives…” Tariffs on Canadian products are about the border, or fentanyl, or trade imbalances, or softwood lumber subsidies, or ads on American television paid for by the Ontario government or 400 per cent butter tariffs that have never been imposed. Or whatever he thinks of now or in the future, ad infinitum.

He lies as easily and as fluidly as if it was his native language.

His lying has reached the point where fact-checkers analyzing his public statements actually refer to broad sections of his speeches as being just the regular and oft-repeated falsehoods that are regular fare in his diatribes.

What does that mean for trade negotiations?

Primarily, that there’s little upside to reaching anything like a deal. There’s no reason to believe that the lying won’t continue, or that it won’t be directed at Canada any time Trump is even a remote bit out of sorts with his neighbours.

And that leads to an uncomfortable impasse for the tens of thousands of Canadians whose jobs depend on a relatively seamless trade deal with the United States.

There is no point to actually reaching a trade deal with the United States at this moment, because it quite simply won’t be worth the paper it would be printed on.

It’s almost better to keep stringing the process along for as long as possible, maintaining the shreds of the status quo left in the existing Canada-United States-Mexico trade deal, while hoping that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Trump’s tariffing abilities, or that the threat of a midterm collapse will cause Republicans to find a spine before they immolate themselves.

The fundamental question is, how can you deal with a constant fabulist?

The answer, unfortunately, is that you can’t.

We just have to do everything we can to move on, while looking like we’re eagerly trying to reach a deal we can’t quite get to.