They built it, but will they come?

Earlier this week, FIFA World Cup countdown clocks passed from three to two digits. There’s now just 90-odd days until the event — set to take place in Canada, Mexico and the United States — kicks off in Mexico City.

But what if it was scheduled to start, say, tomorrow? It’s a frightening exercise.

Only a week ago, a World Cup co-host attacked a World Cup-qualified nation that posed no imminent threat. (It’s a wretched way to describe the United States’ military strike on Iran, but one that’s going to be increasingly germane as that countdown approaches zero.)

The war — and yes, it’s a war — has since seen at least 13 additional countries sustain bombardments, mostly from retaliatory Iranian missiles. Three of them (Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) will be sending their senior men’s soccer teams to North America this spring.

A fourth (Turkey) could join them if it wins a European play-in tournament later this month. A fifth (Iraq) could also qualify via the inter-confederation play-offs in Guadalupe and Zapopan, Mexico, also three weeks from now. More on that in a moment.

Zapopan, if the name rings a bell, is part of the Guadalajara region in the Mexican state of Jalisco. In late February, Mexican forces killed Jalisco drug kingpin “El Mencho,” whose cartel then terrorized Jalisco and 20 other states.

Scenes of street-fighting, explosions and desperate runs to the airports remain fresh in mind. Further violence is more than likely as cartel bosses jockey to fill a power vacuum.

Returning to those inter-confederation play-offs, on Tuesday FIFA released a tranche of tickets priced from only US$12. Granted, the prospect of New Caledonia vs. Jamaica in a city that could once again be menaced by the cartels is unlikely to be especially in-demand.

But what about when Mexico faces South Korea in Zapopan on June 18? Or when Uruguay and Spain go head-to-head at its Estadio Akron eight days later?

Will travelling fans risk the journey, and for tickets priced closer to US$1,200 than US$12? In the short term, will Iraq even make it to Mexico in the last week of March?

Iraqi airspace is currently closed and will remain so until at least early April. Many Iraq internationals play in foreign domestic leagues, but not all. Nearly half the squad is in the country and unable to leave.

Then there’s the matter of visas — difficult to obtain at the best of times, but nearly impossible with the war in Iran having forced embassy closures throughout the region. If the World Cup started tomorrow, Iraq would not be part of it.

Sticking with the visa question, supporters of several qualified countries are currently prevented from travelling to the United States. Ivory Coast and Senegal have been hit with partial restrictions while Haitians and Iranians have been banned outright. Fans looking to fly to the U.S. from a number of other countries will face insurmountable visa barriers.

Regarding Iran specifically, FIFA’s 20th-ranked men’s national team would not be part of a World Cup that kicked off tomorrow. Obviously. Question is, what would have to change in order to ensure its participation in Group G?

The answer is tied to the war’s outcome, the new Iranian regime and the geopolitical situation that emerges from the rubble. In other words, it’s an open question. Nobody knows. Given the volatility of the primary actors, the circumstances could well be considerably worse in June than they are right now.

Then there’s the matter of the United States, itself.

Though the news cycle has moved on, ICE is still a very present threat to daily life for many Americans. They’ll be active at World Cup venues and, with American host cities yet to receive the promised funding for security, they and other contracted forces could end up being even more visible than they are right now.

The bottom line is that, as of the first week of March 2026, the U.S. government has a default posture of loathing the rest of the world and despising many of its own citizens. That won’t change by June 11.

Keeping all this in mind, will international fans actually travel to the United States and help fill the stadiums?

Curiously, and despite its boasting of unprecedented demand and record sales, this week FIFA quietly launched a ticket-selling campaign that revealed availability for 60 per cent of World Cup matches, according to reporting by The Athletic. Notably, the United States opener against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium is yet to sell out.

Either FIFA’s dynamic pricing model has failed miserably or the organization has been lying all along. But the fact is that tickets are available for the majority of games.

(At this point it should be emphasized that Canada’s co-hosting experience has been totally different. Enthusiasm is growing in Toronto and Vancouver, both of which recently unveiled pedestrian-friendly corridors and fan zones.)

Here’s the state of play.

If the World Cup began tomorrow, a handful of games would be postponed through fear of violence, and the ones that did go ahead would take place in under-capacity stadiums. There would be fewer than 48 teams. Certain squads would be late in arriving due to visa complications, resulting in more postponements.

Because of an ongoing war, tensions would be high and U.S. law enforcement — as U.S. President Donald Trump admitted in a People interview published Thursday — would be watching for Iranian reprisal actions on American soil.

Fans from four qualified countries would either be banned from entering the United States or apprehended at customs. Closed airspace would complicate the arrivals of other teams and supporters. Without the promised security funding, one or more American host cities would likely pull out of the tournament — or try to.

Here’s a final question to complete this exercise: If the countdown clocks hit zero tomorrow, would the World Cup actually start?

winnipegfreepress.com/jerradpeters