Donald Trump and his Venezuelan gambit

Opinion

Whatever this is, it is not a replay of Operation Just Cause — otherwise known as the December 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama.

It’s hard to know for sure what U.S. President Donald Trump is up to with respect to his current naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea. Perhaps it is about looking tough against the illegal drug trade. He also wants to send a pointed signal to left-leaning Venezuela and any other country that gets on the wrong side of the Trump White House.

But I’m not convinced that official Washington is plotting to invade Venezuela over issues and allegations swirling around narco-trafficking, gangs and terrorist activities. Remember, Trump came close to pulling the trigger on the Nicolás Maduro government in April 2019 and then had second thoughts — much to the chagrin of then-national security adviser John Bolton.

It is true that the Trump administration is putting on a pretty good show for those who are paying attention. Deploying a flotilla of naval ships (and one nuclear submarine) of various capabilities is not an insignificant display of military prowess — not to mention some 4,500 armed military types (including 2,200 U.S. Marines). But, as I said, this is largely for show.

To be sure, the deadly encounter involving a missile-carrying U.S. helicopter and an allegedly drug-smuggling Venezuelan fast boat in international waters was unnecessary and counterproductive. Most of these types of engagements are usually garden variety hail and board incidents, sometimes involving shots fired, but mostly uneventful.

But as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted: the order to use lethal force against the Venezuelan vessel came directly from Trump himself. More ominously, Rubio also let the diplomatic cat out of the bag by saying: “Instead of interdicting it, on the president’s orders, we blew it up – and it’ll happen again.”

Let’s be clear here: this was an incontrovertible violation of the UN’s Law of the Sea convention and international law. There is no way you can legitimize this attack, no matter how hard you try to stretch it, by invoking the scourge of illicit drugs, the laws of armed conflict and an imminent terrorist threat. This was little more than U.S. “gunboat diplomacy” gone awry – while setting an awful global precedent.

One of the interesting things about the missile strike and the alleged killing of 11 cartel members has been the general silence from top governmental leaders in the region. Besides a mild rebuke from Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, there is mostly crickets. Here we see the Trump fear factor on full display.

It didn’t stop there. On the weekend, the Venezuelan government said a U.S. destroyer intercepted and boarded a Venezuelan tuna fishing vessel. On Tuesday, another vessel, with three people on board, was sunk, with Trump claiming the boat was carrying narcotics. (Vice-President JD Vance joked about the attack, saying “I wouldn’t go fishing right now.”)

Now, Trump is not known for being a brilliant foreign policy strategist or tactician. So that makes me wonder what other explanatory factors were actually at play here.

What most people don’t realize is that when Trump singles out Venezuela, he is really thinking about neighbouring Cuba. It bears repeating that Maduro has been an ally, close friend and important trading partner for a Cuba presently in dire economic straits. So if Trump can unnerve the Venezuelans (particularly the armed forces of Venezuela) and punish the Cubans simultaneously, he may be able to destabilize two countries by periodically turning up the military heat.

The other key intangible here is the critical role of Cuba-hawk Marco Rubio. He is clearly a central driver of U.S. policy in the Americas today. And he is going to repeatedly pull the Trump puppet strings to get him to squeeze the Cubans and Venezuelans as much as humanly possible.

Still, I’m more inclined to believe that Trump is thinking less about international diplomacy and more about raw electoral calculations and specifically the 2026 U.S. midterms. By utilizing a military strike against Venezuela, Trump is providing red meat for his horde of MAGA and Latino followers. It also didn’t hurt that Trump and his base like the imagery of simply blowing something up.

At the same time, it is possible that Trump was trying to use the boat attacks to change the channel on impending deportations of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans and Cubans. Moreover, Trump’s obvious desperation to get the media and his diehard supporters to talk about anything other than the Epstein files could have also been a motivating factor.

But the risks and costs associated with Trump’s gunboat strategy are just too high and potentially long-lasting. It will severely damage the U.S. standing in Latin America, bolster the leftist governments throughout the hemisphere and open the regional door for both Russian and Chinese encroachment. While this latest military gambit may not be Panama redux, it does risk engendering a similar diplomatic fallout.

Besides, no one benefits from a military conflict in South America — no matter how low-level it might be.

The Venezuelan imbroglio, then, is a telling moment in Trump’s early second term. Not only does it remind us once again that he invariably sees foreign policy actions through a domestic political lense, but it also reconfirms his increasingly authoritarian impulses.

And that, I’m afraid, makes the world a whole lot less stable and secure.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.