North Dakota missing its Manitobans

Kay Rone used to spot plenty of Manitoba licence plates outside stores, hotels and restaurants throughout Grand Forks on weekends in past years.

There haven’t been nearly as many since the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020.

“Now, you hardly see them in town,” said Rone, who owns Northern Roots Boutique, a women’s clothing store opposite Columbia Mall, which was once a big draw for cross-border shoppers.

She displays a window sign welcoming Canadians.

“We’d love to see more and have them come down and shop with us,” Rone said.

Political and economic tensions between the U.S. and Canada and anger over President Donald Trump’s annexation rhetoric and insults earlier this year are discouraging many Manitobans from heading south to North Dakota.

While there are likely other contributing reasons for the decline, the number of personal vehicle passengers who entered the U.S. at the Pembina border station, an hour south of Winnipeg, was down 34 per cent between January and July compared with the same period in 2024, U.S. data showed.

Some are simply boycotting U.S. travel. In a July survey of 1,000 Canadians by research firm Longwoods International, 63 per cent of respondents said they are less likely to visit the U.S. because of American policy and politics. Of those, 42 per cent are travelling within Canada, instead.

The cost of living, the expense of travel or a poor exchange rate could be among other factors at play.

The decline in traffic contributed to an estimated US$21.7-million drop in Canadian visitor spending in North Dakota through July, said Kim Schmidt, a spokeswoman for the state’s commerce department, which continues to advertise in Manitoba.

“We deeply value our Canadian neighbours, and love to host them across our state at events, attractions, and parks,” Schmidt wrote in an email.

”We’re committed to making them feel welcome, and eager to set aside politics and warmly welcome them back to enjoy our legendary experiences.”

Tourism bureaus in border states braced for a hit when tensions escalated earlier this year. Some ramped up marketing campaigns to entice Canadian travellers.

Winnipeg accounted for 33 per cent of summer visitors to the neighbouring cities of Fargo, N.D., and Moorhead, Minn., up to July 31, said Visit Fargo-Moorhead CEO Shirley Hughes.

She said it was only a 3.4 per cent drop from 2024, despite the decline in border crossings.

“They choose Fargo because we’re fun, affordable and welcoming,” Hughes said.“That market is extremely important to us, and we’ll continue to roll out the red carpet.”

People who work in the retail and hospitality sectors told North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer they’re feeling the effects of fewer Canadian visitors.

Cramer has talked to Trump about the downturn, which unfolded against the president’s sweeping tariffs and a simmering trade war. Cramer said the president cares about the situation.

“He doesn’t like to see his business community, particularly the small-business community, be hurt by anything,” Cramer said, with a nod toward Trump’s trade policy and tariffs. “But, he assures that in the long run it will be beneficial, and I don’t think he’s wrong about that.”

Cramer, co-chair of the American Canadian Economy and Security Caucus, was part of a delegation of senators who talked trade and tourism in Ottawa while trying to help mend relations in May.

He believes a fair trade deal will help to improve relations and bring a tourism rebound in his state.

“The relationship matters a great deal to me at a personal level,” said Cramer, who co-chairs the Canada-U.S. Inter-Parliamentary Group with Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

“We don’t want to have to go through two (tourism) seasons like this last one, and I don’t think we will. I think it will get ironed out and we’ll get normalized again.”

From Jan. 1 to July 31, U.S. officials recorded 91,215 personal vehicles and 207,997 personal vehicle passengers at the Pembina border station — the busiest along Manitoba’s border with the U.S..

That number is down from 131,294 personal vehicles and 317,548 personal vehicle passengers during the same period in 2024.

In July alone, the number of passengers decreased by 38 per cent.

“It’s a pretty dramatic drop,” said Emerson Duty Free Shop owner Simon Resch.

The decline has delivered a blow to duty-free shops along the border.

Resch said U.S.-bound travellers from Manitoba would typically go on weekend or extended road trips in the past. The pattern has shifted toward day trips this year, he said.

Resch said the change impacts duty-free shops because Canadians must be out of the country for at least 48 hours in order to meet personal exemptions for alcohol and tobacco products.

He has lobbied the federal government to change “very restrictive” regulations for duty-free shops, which he said prevent owners from introducing new product categories, such as gasoline or diesel fuel sales.

As for northbound travel, recent data from Statistics Canada suggested a slight increase in Americans who crossed into Manitoba via land border stations.

The agency said 60,660 automobiles with U.S. licence plates entered Manitoba between January and June, up from 59,795 the previous year. Almost 40 per cent arrived via the port of entry in Emerson, the busiest in Manitoba.

In June, U.S. visitors spent 15 per cent more in Winnipeg than they did during the same month in 2024, said Natalie Thiesen, vice-president of tourism for Winnipeg Economic Development & Tourism.

Complete summer data is not yet available.

“The U.S. market in particular is an important segment to our economy because it represents, historically, about 25 per cent of spending, so seeing it stay strong — higher than last year — is a good sign, despite all the U.S.-Canada geopolitical tensions,” Thiesen said.

Research suggests an exchange rate that is favourable for Americans is not a main motivator for visits to Manitoba, Thiesen said.

Thousands of Americans travel to Manitoba to fish or hunt ever year. Some lodges had to close for a month or longer this year due to one of the worst wildfire seasons in recent memory.

Aikens Lake Wilderness Lodge in eastern Manitoba lost five weeks in a 16-week season amid a sudden decline in bookings by U.S. customers, said co-owner and general manager Pit Turenne.

“After March 1st, we just didn’t book any Americans any more,” said Turenne, who suspects the political climate was a factor.

The lodge’s bookings for 2026 are strong so far, with more than half of the customers from the U.S.

“This was just a really weird year due to the political situation and then getting hit by wildfires,” Turenne said. “Hopefully, it’s all in the rear-view mirror.”

Don Lamont, executive director of Manitoba Lodges and Outfitters Association, said wildfires led to a tough season for operators.

He said he doesn’t think political tensions factored into American hunters’ or fishers’ decisions to visit Manitoba.

“I think it was more they were concerned about coming up and getting stranded (because of) the smoke situation,” Lamont said.

He expects some operators to extend their season into the fall in a bid to make up for earlier losses.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca