Carney got the job, time to see if he can handle it

Opinion

Liberal Leader Mark Carney may have won the election Monday night, but if the former Bank of Canada governor thought the campaign trail was gruelling, it will pale in comparison to the job he has ahead of him.

With 169 seats in the House of Commons — three shy of a majority — the Liberals are back in power, but not with the mandate they hoped for.

And as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten economic chaos from across the border (not to mention his persistent attacks on Canada’s sovereignty), Carney will be in the fight of his life.

This wasn’t a red wave. This wasn’t a coronation. Despite the prime minister’s international pedigree and polished campaign, Canadians sent a clear message: we’ll give you the keys, but we’re watching closely — and we don’t entirely trust you.

Carney may have brought the Liberals back from the brink after years of fatigue with Justin Trudeau’s leadership, but voters stopped short of handing him full control. The election results make one thing perfectly clear: Canadians are cautious, fractured, and wary of anyone claiming to have all the answers.

Now Carney faces a moment that few prime ministers in Canadian history have had to confront: how to unify a divided nation while standing up to an existential threat from the United States.

Carney’s calm, measured tone may be exactly what Canada needs right now. But calm doesn’t equal unity. And this country has rarely felt as divided as it does today.

East versus West, urban versus rural, progressive versus populist. The electoral map may be slightly redder than it was prior to the election, but the mood across the country is tense and brittle.

Take Alberta and Saskatchewan. Once again, the Liberals were nearly shut out in those provinces, winning only three of a combined 51 seats. They are virtually tied with the Conservatives in British Columbia and Manitoba (where the Liberals made some gains).

In Ontario, a rural-urban split resulted in an overall loss of seats for the Liberals.

They did well in Quebec. But while Carney speaks the language of fiscal prudence and social progress, to many Quebecers, he still feels like an outsider. Winning back the trust of nationalist-minded voters there will take more than a few French news conferences.

The Liberals were victorious in the Atlantic provinces, taking 25 of 32 seats, which is about what they hoped for. Still, it was no red wave. Ergo a minority, not a majority, government.

The resentment in the West remains. Whether perceived or real, there is a feeling that eastern Canada makes all the decisions while people living in the Prairies and on the West Coast pay the price. Carney’s promises of climate leadership and economic transition will ring hollow unless he finds a way to bring resource-rich provinces to the table in a meaningful way. That means listening, not lecturing. Collaborating, not imposing.

Then there’s the reality in Parliament. With 169 seats, Carney will almost certainly need to partner with the NDP again — or possibly the Bloc Québécois, or both — to govern effectively. That means confidence votes, budgets, and major legislation will require cross-party co-operation.

This won’t be the tightly controlled technocratic government Carney might have envisioned. It will be a balancing act — working with other parties on everything from pharmacare to climate policy, while keeping more centrist Liberal voters onboard.

That’s a tall order for someone who’s never held elected office. How will Carney perform in the House of Commons? Will he be able to withstand the increasingly combative nature of Parliament, including the daily onslaught of question period? It’s no picnic.

Carney brings credibility, yes. Gravitas, certainly. But politics isn’t the same as banking. You don’t set the interest rate and walk away. Every decision is a compromise. Every policy has a political cost.

To lead this country now means facing down an increasingly hostile America (Carney already had a telephone conversation with Trump Tuesday and the two have agreed to meet in person).

It means defending our economy from reckless tariffs. It means standing firm on Canadian sovereignty while maintaining crucial economic ties with our largest trading partner — and expanding export markets elsewhere. It means stitching together a nation that increasingly sees itself in shards rather than a whole.

Carney wanted this job. Now he has it. But this is no victory lap. This is the opening chapter of what will be one of the most challenging mandates in modern Canadian history.

There’s no margin for error. There’s no room for complacency.

If Carney wants to keep the job past the next election (who knows when that will be), he’ll need to prove — quickly — that he can not only manage crisis, but inspire confidence across party lines, across provinces, and across deeply entrenched divides.

He won the election. Now he has to earn the leadership.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca